Bayesian estimation of climate sensitivity using observationally constrained simple climate models
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Using multiple observationally-based constraints to estimate climate sensitivity
[1] Climate sensitivity has been subjectively estimated to be likely to lie in the range of 1.5–4.5 C, and this uncertainty contributes a substantial part of the total uncertainty in climate change projections over the coming century. Objective observationally-based estimates have so far failed to improve on this upper bound, with many estimates even suggesting a significant probability of clim...
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[1] We survey the IPCC AR4 models’ responses to SRES A1B forcing in order to evaluate a prediction of climate change common to all models and testable using GPS radio occultation data over the coming decades. Of the IPCC AR4 models that submitted runs of the SRES A1B forcing scenario, we select twelve because of the timeliness of their submission. Trends in the global average surface air temper...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: WIREs Climate Change
سال: 2016
ISSN: 1757-7780,1757-7799
DOI: 10.1002/wcc.397